Election Prediction Off, Lichtman Comments

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Post on Nov 07, 2024

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Election Predictions Off? Lichtman Weighs In

Remember those election predictions that were all over the place this year? Yeah, they were pretty off the mark for a lot of people. But, before you throw your hands up and say "predicting elections is impossible", let's hear what Professor Allan Lichtman, a dude who's been predicting elections for decades, has to say about it.

Lichtman's got this system called "Keys to the White House", which is basically a set of 13 things that predict the winner of the presidential election. He's been right 16 times out of the last 17 elections - that's pretty impressive!

So, what happened this time? Well, Lichtman predicted a Biden win, and he was right. But even he admits that the election was a lot closer than he thought it would be. He even said "I was surprised by the closeness of the result. I thought it would be a bigger win for Biden."

But what does this mean for future predictions? Lichtman says that we shouldn't get too discouraged. He argues that predicting elections is always difficult, and that there's always a chance for surprises. He's sticking to his system, but he also recognizes that the political landscape is constantly shifting, and that things might not always be predictable.

In short, Lichtman's saying that even the best prediction models can be wrong sometimes. But that doesn't mean they're useless. He believes his system is still a valuable tool for understanding the political landscape.

So, while we might not have perfect predictions, maybe the best we can do is to stay informed and pay attention to the trends that shape our politics. That's how we can make sense of the world, even when the future feels uncertain.